Playoff Outlook
Eastern Conference
Atlantic leader
Atlantic #2 vs #3
Metropolitan leader
Metropolitan #2 vs #3
Western Conference
Pacific leader
Pacific #2 vs #3
Central leader
Central #2 vs #3
Updated October 19, 2026 at 1:21 a.m.
LIVE MODEL
NHL
VALUE LAB
The NHL Value Lab is built from the players up, connecting individual performance to the eventual playoff picture. Its independent model, rigorously refined and tested against past seasons, assigns customized weights to multiple skater metrics, each with its own blend of historical seasons. That foundation is fused with current-season performance to produce player ratings, power rankings, and an evolving season outlook that updates as each new game is played.
Explore the player values behind each team’s ranking, compare roster strengths and weaknesses, and test how a trade could change the outlook. Follow your team, challenge your assumptions, and see how the pieces fit together.
Lineup Strength Rankings
5 of 32 teams visible
3 of 32 teams visible
| NHL Rank | Record | PTS | P% | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 7th | 6-2-0 | 12 | .750 | 111–121 | 88.5% | |
| 2 | 1 | 11th | 5-2-1 | 11 | .688 | 114–126 | 96.2% | |
| 3 | 2 | 4th | 6-1-1 | 13 | .813 | 114–126 | 97.1% | |
| 4 | 5 | 1st | 8-2-0 | 16 | .800 | 107–115 | 91.0% | |
| 5 | 12 | 8th | 6-3-0 | 12 | .667 | 102–108 | 79.8% |
TRADE SIMULATOR
See how trades can change the model
Build a trade and see its impact on each team's metrics and playoff outlook.
Top 10 by Position
| Pos. rank | Player | Team | Age | Player Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EDM | 29 | 76.8 | |
| 2 | COL | 31 | 71.1 | |
| 3 | EDM | 30 | 69.9 | |
| 4 | TOR | 29 | 66.4 | |
| 5 | SJS | 20 | 66.1 | |
| 6 | VGK | 29 | 65.8 | |
| 7 | NJD | 25 | 63.2 | |
| 8 | MTL | 27 | 62.6 | |
| 9 | OTT | 24 | 62.2 | |
| 10 | CAR | 29 | 61.7 |
#1
EDM · Shoots left · Age 29
More details
- Player Rating
- 76.8
#2
COL · Shoots right · Age 31
More details
- Player Rating
- 71.1
#3
EDM · Shoots left · Age 30
More details
- Player Rating
- 69.9
Team comparison
Team vs Team
Compare lineup strength rankings, Points Outlook, playoff chance, Change Since 2025–26, and all seven projected profile dimensions.Updated October 19, 2026 at 1:21 a.m.
Unified forecast99–103Points Outlook · Forecast rank #13
- Current Lineup Rank
- #15
- Full Strength Rank
- #10
- Points Outlook
- 99–103
- Playoff Chance
- 59.4%
- Change Since 2025–26
- -6.8
- Conference / Division
- East / Atlantic
View full profile
Ranks compare all 32 NHL teams. Deployment measures describe projected roles, rather than pure talent.
| Dimension / explanation | NHL rank |
|---|---|
ScoringProjected goals per game. | 23rdClear weakness |
PlaymakingProjected assists per game. | 17thAround league average |
Shot generationProjected shots per game. | 21stAround league average |
5v5 possessionProjected relative shot-attempt share at five-on-five. | 9thClear strength |
Puck managementProjected takeaways minus giveaways per game. | 10thClear strength |
Shot blockingProjected shot blocks per game; one defensive contribution, not complete defensive ability. | 13thAround league average |
DisciplineProjected penalties drawn minus penalties taken per game. | 3rdElite / major strength |
Technical values
| Component | Projected z |
|---|---|
| Goals / GP | 0.026 |
| Assists / GP | 0.075 |
| Shots / GP | 0.055 |
| 5v5 SAT Relative | 0.130 |
| Takeaways - Giveaways / GP | 0.001 |
| Blocks / GP | 0.019 |
| Net Penalties / GP | 0.223 |
Frozen standardized player-component averages. These values are unchanged by the presentation labels. Trade summaries highlight a strength/weakness category change or at least four NHL ranks, with an absolute standardized component change of at least 0.05.
Updated October 19, 2026 at 1:21 a.m.
Unified forecast82–85Points Outlook · Forecast rank #26
- Current Lineup Rank
- #23
- Full Strength Rank
- #24
- Points Outlook
- 82–85
- Playoff Chance
- 17.4%
- Change Since 2025–26
- -0.5
- Conference / Division
- East / Atlantic
View full profile
Ranks compare all 32 NHL teams. Deployment measures describe projected roles, rather than pure talent.
| Dimension / explanation | NHL rank |
|---|---|
ScoringProjected goals per game. | 14thAround league average |
PlaymakingProjected assists per game. | 21stAround league average |
Shot generationProjected shots per game. | 14thAround league average |
5v5 possessionProjected relative shot-attempt share at five-on-five. | 12thAround league average |
Puck managementProjected takeaways minus giveaways per game. | 22ndAround league average |
Shot blockingProjected shot blocks per game; one defensive contribution, not complete defensive ability. | 17thAround league average |
DisciplineProjected penalties drawn minus penalties taken per game. | 22ndAround league average |
Technical values
| Component | Projected z |
|---|---|
| Goals / GP | 0.122 |
| Assists / GP | 0.035 |
| Shots / GP | 0.144 |
| 5v5 SAT Relative | 0.097 |
| Takeaways - Giveaways / GP | -0.159 |
| Blocks / GP | -0.007 |
| Net Penalties / GP | -0.052 |
Frozen standardized player-component averages. These values are unchanged by the presentation labels. Trade summaries highlight a strength/weakness category change or at least four NHL ranks, with an absolute standardized component change of at least 0.05.
Ottawa Senators advantagediscipline, puck management
Toronto Maple Leafs advantagescoring, shot generation
Player comparison
Player vs player
Search by any part of a player's name to compare current player ratings, ranks, and player contributions.Updated October 19, 2026 at 1:21 a.m.
- Team / Position
- EDM / C
- Overall Rank
- #1
- Position Rank
- #1
- Age
- 29 · Shoots left
- Updating context
- 8 current-season games · Live
Updated October 19, 2026 at 1:21 a.m.
- Team / Position
- COL / D
- Overall Rank
- #10
- Position Rank
- #2
- Age
- 27 · Shoots right
- Updating context
- 7 current-season games · Live
OPEN MODEL
HONEST UNCERTAINTY
How the model works
Observed behind, projected ahead
- Sixteen historical source seasons and twelve normal following-season targets.
- Metric-specific recency, shrinkage, and forward/defenceman aging effects.
- Current-season evidence gradually updates the historical player projections.
- The projected lineup powers one team forecast and a profile of what makes that team distinctive.
- Completed games stay fixed. Unified Team Strength feeds 1,344 scheduled games across 100,000 remaining-schedule simulations per production seed.
- Value Lab Rank orders teams by unrounded Team Rating. Points Outlook combines the mean season projection and the typical total associated with the forecast rank; it remains a presentation span, not a confidence interval.
Limits & interpretation
A range, not a promise
Future injuries, coaching changes, prospect breakouts, role changes, trades, and goaltending variance cannot be known at the model date.
Rest, travel, back-to-backs, and three-in-four effects were explicitly tested, but a zero schedule multiplier performed best. Prior-year goalie results and advanced-stat candidates failed their promotion gates, while dynamic lineups remain outside the validated neutral simulator rather than being added without evidence.